black swan
noun phrase

- a phenomenon that occurs even though it had been thought to be impossible

- an occurrence or phenomenon that comes as a surprise because it was not predicted or was hard to predict

- an Australian swan, Cygnus atratus, having mostly black plumage and a red bill

Merriam-Webster / Collins Dictionary

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PHRASE ORIGIN

The phrase 'black swan event' originates from the Latin expression rara avis in terris nigroque simillima cygno, which means 'a rare bird in the lands, and very much like a black swan'. This expression refers to the ancient Roman assumption that black swans did not exist, as none had been observed. The discovery of black swans in Australia by European explorers in the 17th century overturned this misconception.

The term "black swan event" was popularized by author Nassim Nicholas Taleb in his 2007 book 'The Black Swan'. In the book, Taleb uses the metaphor of black swan events to refer to highly improbable and difficult-to-predict events that have massive, widespread consequences.

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21st CENTURY BLACK SWANS

— The bursting of the dot-com bubble in the early 2000s. The rapid collapse of seemingly unstoppable tech stocks upended the economy and business landscape.

— The CRISPR Revolution in Gene Editing. This technology has enabled scientists to easily edit genes in a wide range of organisms, leading to rapid advancements in medical research, agriculture, and biotechnology.

— The COVID-19 pandemic starting in 2020. This novel virus spread globally, causing immense loss of life and economic damage. It was an outlier event beyond most pandemic predictions.

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SYNONYMS

aberration, anomaly, BLACK SWAN, bolt from the blue, extreme outlier, game changer, highly improbable event, longshot incident, low probability high impact event, man-bites-dog happening, maverick experience, off-the-charts happening, out of the blue, outlier event, paradigm shift event, perfect storm, rare event, seismic event, statistical anomaly, tail risk event, tipping point, ultra outlier, unexpected shock, unforeseen/unpredictable/watershed/wild card event

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SMUGGLE OWAD into an English conversation, say something like:

“The emergence of Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) would be a BLACK SWAN with profound consequences for humanity.”

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